The Somalia national dialogue that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud called for 14 to 18 November in Mogadishu failed to open on Saturday, after the main opposition alliance refused to attend without international mediation.
The stalled Somalia national dialogue leaves the country without an agreed route to its next elections, as a dispute over the president’s mandate, constitutional changes and the judiciary deepens and African Union troops draw down.
Why did the Somalia national dialogue not open?
The Somali Future Council told the government and international partners it would not take part in talks hosted at Villa Somalia, Garowe Online reported. Its members include former president Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, former prime minister Hassan Ali Khaire and the leaders of Puntland and Jubaland.
The alliance wants any negotiation to be facilitated by four partners, the United States, Britain, the European Union and Turkey. It objects to the government’s constitutional amendments and its plan to move to direct elections, arguing that such decisions need broad consensus.
Talks expected on Saturday were delayed after the opposition’s refusal, Goobjoog News reported in Somali.
What does the government say?
The presidency said on Saturday that “contacts are under way with the parties invited to the National Consultative Forum, as part of preparations for the conference”, and that it would open soon, Dawan Africa reported. It gave no new date or venue. The Office of the President invited opposition groups and civil society to the five-day forum to resolve disagreements over the electoral process, Hiiraan Online reported.
Not all opponents are boycotting the Somalia national dialogue. A group led by former prime minister Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke and the Nabad iyo Nolol party of former president Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo agreed in principle to attend, but had not been told where the meeting would be held, Dawan Africa said.
What is Turkey’s role in the Somalia national dialogue?
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met Mohamud on Thursday at the COP31 leaders’ summit in Antalya. He stressed political dialogue and stability and said he hoped the national dialogue would succeed, according to a Turkish presidency statement reported by Hiiraan Online.
The statement did not say Erdogan had asked Mohamud to negotiate with any named opposition group. Turkey’s ambassador in Mogadishu, Ferhat Alkan, has held separate meetings with Farmaajo, Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Khaire, the Turkish embassy said. Ankara is one of the four partners the opposition wants as facilitators.
How did the crisis reach this point?
The dispute has widened over the past fortnight. Somalia’s Supreme Court ruled on 6 November that an extension of the president’s term was unlawful, AP reported, and DNE Africa covered the clash between the court and the president.
The justice ministry says the chief justice, Bashe Yusuf Ahmed, was removed lawfully on 4 November, and it has rejected UN experts’ call to reinstate him. Puntland and Jubaland have long rejected the federal government’s electoral model.
On Saturday Jubaland’s leader, Ahmed Mohamed Islam (Madobe), travelled to Garowe, Puntland’s capital, for consultations as the Mogadishu talks stalled, Garowe Online reported in Somali.
What happens next?
The presidency says the forum will still open in Mogadishu. Whether it does with the main opposition present depends on whether Villa Somalia accepts outside facilitation, which it has so far resisted. Until then the Somalia national dialogue remains a meeting of the government and its smaller rivals, not of the parties that control two federal member states.
FAQ
What is the Somalia national dialogue?
A National Consultative Forum called by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud for 14 to 18 November in Mogadishu to settle disputes over elections and constitutional changes.
Who is boycotting the Somalia national dialogue?
The Somali Future Council, an alliance including former president Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, former prime minister Hassan Ali Khaire and the leaders of Puntland and Jubaland.
What does the opposition want?
Talks facilitated by the US, Britain, the EU and Turkey, and consensus on constitutional amendments and the move to direct elections.
When will the forum open?
The presidency said on Saturday it would open “soon” in Mogadishu but gave no date.
