A Turkish-brokered deal between Ethiopia and Somalia to resolve tensions and secure Ethiopian access to the Red Sea has reportedly collapsed, according to diplomatic sources cited by Africa Intelligence.
The breakdown reportedly stems from Somalia’s refusal to offer Ethiopia strategic access beyond limited commercial arrangements in southern ports. Neither Mogadishu nor Addis Ababa has officially commented on the report.
The setback comes amid a visible shift in Somalia’s diplomatic posture. In recent days, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in Cairo and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara. Somalia and Egypt signed a military cooperation pact in 2024, and Egypt has since deployed troops to Somali territory.
Ethiopia has raised concerns about Egyptian military presence in Somalia, citing national security risks. Addis Ababa has long accused Cairo of backing rebel groups and undermining Ethiopian interests in the Horn of Africa.
The failed maritime talks follow months of cautious engagement. Ethiopia and Somalia exchanged state visits earlier this year and signed a bilateral military cooperation deal, but friction over Ethiopia’s memorandum with Somaliland—widely seen as a step toward formal recognition—has remained a major sticking point.
With diplomatic momentum now stalling and Somalia strengthening ties with rivals Egypt and Turkey, analysts warn that regional tensions in the Horn of Africa could once again escalate.
