Just months after the devastating Tigray conflict came to a formal end—having claimed the lives of more than 600,000 people, Ethiopia is once again staring into the abyss of internal war. The fragile peace following the Pretoria Agreement has given way to renewed violence in the northern Amhara region, where fierce clashes have erupted between government forces and a powerful ethnic militia coalition known as “Fano.”
Though the violence in Amhara has primarily escaped international attention—partly due to the government’s restriction of access to conflict areas and a deteriorating security environment—the situation on the ground is rapidly deteriorating. Recent updates from humanitarian organizations and conflict-monitoring groups suggest that Ethiopia could soon be engulfed in another nationwide civil war.
From Allies to Adversaries: The Rise of the Fano Insurgency
During the Tigray war, the Fano militias fought alongside the federal government in their campaign against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). However, the post-war peace process—particularly the terms of the Pretoria Agreement signed in November 2022—failed to meet Fano’s expectations. Feeling sidelined and betrayed, the group shifted from being a key government ally to a determined adversary.
Fano, a formidable ethnic militia originating from the Amhara region, is considered one of the most significant armed factions in the area. It claims control over nearly 80% of Amhara—a region with a population of roughly 22 million people—and has mobilized thousands of fighters.
What began as isolated skirmishes with the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) in April 2023 escalated into a full-blown armed uprising by August of the same year. In a series of coordinated offensives, Fano launched widespread attacks aiming to seize control of major cities throughout the region.
A Conflict Escalating on All Fronts
Since mid-March 2025, hostilities have intensified. Fano fighters have expanded their operations to multiple fronts across Amhara, clashing violently with federal troops. In response, the Ethiopian military claims to have killed at least 300 insurgents during recent offensives designed to push back the militia and restore federal authority over the contested territory.
One of Fano’s primary demands includes reclaiming the western portion of Tigray—a contested area they once helped the government capture during the civil war. However, Fano leaders were excluded from the Pretoria peace talks, further deepening their sense of betrayal and marginalization.
On the battlefield, neither side seems to hold the upper hand. Local witnesses report a chaotic and fluid conflict zone where control over towns and villages frequently changes hands. One day, government forces may occupy a settlement, only for it to fall back into Fano’s control the next.
A Region in Humanitarian Crisis
The human cost of the Amhara conflict is growing at an alarming rate. Since the uprising began in August 2023, more than 3,600 schools have been closed across the region. Many of these educational institutions have been looted or severely damaged, depriving over 4.2 million children of access to formal education.
Humanitarian agencies estimate that more than 2.3 million people across the region required urgent assistance in 2024 alone. Many of these individuals reside in areas inaccessible to aid organizations due to the ongoing violence and insecurity. Roads are often blocked, travel between cities has become perilous, and local infrastructure is deteriorating under the weight of continued conflict.
Allegations of War Crimes and Human Rights Abuses
The Ethiopian government has come under increasing scrutiny over its handling of the Amhara uprising. Human rights organizations have accused the Ethiopian military of committing serious violations—including extrajudicial killings and indiscriminate drone strikes targeting civilian areas.
In a report published in late 2024, Human Rights Watch documented widespread atrocities committed by government forces and allied militias in at least 13 towns across Amhara since August 2023. These included mass arrests, targeted killings, and the destruction of civilian homes and institutions.
Amnesty International echoed these findings, criticizing the federal government for failing to hold perpetrators accountable or take meaningful steps to protect civilians. The central government, it said, has yet to implement a transparent investigation process or prosecute any individuals for war-related crimes.
A Political Deadlock with No Clear Resolution
Despite public statements by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed claiming that dialogue with the Fano group has been ongoing for months, progress remains elusive. The lack of a unified leadership structure within Fano and the decentralized nature of the group’s operations have made formal negotiations difficult.
Abiy has acknowledged the challenges, stating that the government’s attempts to engage in peace talks have been hindered by Fano’s fragmentation. With no cohesive leadership to represent the insurgents at the negotiating table, the conflict remains locked in a destructive stalemate.
Ethiopia’s Fragile Future
The resurgence of violence in Amhara threatens to plunge Ethiopia—Africa’s second most populous nation—into another prolonged civil war, with potentially disastrous consequences for regional stability. The country is still reeling from the humanitarian and economic toll of the Tigray conflict, and another nationwide war could overwhelm its already fragile institutions.
Unless urgent efforts are made to facilitate inclusive peace talks and address the underlying political grievances fueling the Amhara insurgency, Ethiopia risks becoming mired in a cycle of endless internal wars—each more destructive than the last.
The international community, too, must remain engaged. Silent diplomacy and muted responses will no longer suffice in the face of rising violence, growing displacement, and a population teetering on the edge of another humanitarian catastrophe.
