– Tensions are once again surging in Ethiopia’s Tigray region as reports emerge of forced conscription allegedly carried out by the dominant faction of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), led by Debretsion Gebremichael. According to regional sources, the group is rounding up youth and sending them to military camps in what appears to be a large-scale mobilization effort ahead of a potential new war.
Multiple witnesses in towns under the faction’s control say young men are being detained without warning and transported to undisclosed training sites. The situation has reportedly triggered a wave of youth flight, with hundreds attempting to flee the region to avoid conscription.
Though the reports remain unverified independently, alarm bells are ringing across Ethiopia’s political landscape. Prominent opposition figure Gebru Asrat has raised repeated concerns in local media interviews, accusing the Debretsion-led group of working in tandem with the Eritrean government—referred to locally as “Shabia”—to prepare for war against the federal government in Addis Ababa.
The specter of renewed war comes less than three years after a devastating conflict between the TPLF and the federal government that left an estimated 600,000 people dead and displaced millions. In his recent appearance before Ethiopia’s parliament, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed issued a direct warning about the looming threat. “If this war begins, it will be worse than the last one,” he said, urging diplomatic and religious figures to intervene and prevent renewed violence.
In response, a high-level delegation of religious leaders traveled to Tigray last week to meet with TPLF leadership behind closed doors. The outcome of those discussions remains undisclosed.
Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s Chief of General Staff, Field Marshal Berhanu Jula, confirmed during a press briefing this week that TPLF forces are in possession of tanks and heavy artillery—equipment they were supposed to surrender under the Pretoria Agreement, which formally ended the 2020–2022 conflict. “They have not complied with the disarmament clause,” Berhanu said, warning of grave consequences if hostilities resume.
Further fueling concerns is what appears to be a realignment in the Horn of Africa’s geopolitical landscape. Credible reports indicate that the Eritrea-Tigray border, particularly along the Zalambessa Front, has quietly reopened. This follows growing signs of coordination between Eritrean forces and the Debretsion-led faction of the TPLF. The reported alliance—dubbed “Tsemdo”—is seen as a major shift in regional dynamics, given the bitter history between the TPLF and Eritrea’s ruling party.
Within Tigray itself, a split is becoming increasingly visible. Tensions between rival factions of the TPLF are deepening, particularly over the question of whether to engage in another war. Getachew Reda, the former president of Tigray’s interim administration and once a leading figure in the party, has aligned with Abiy Ahmed’s federal government. In contrast, Debretsion’s faction has openly gravitated toward Eritrea, sparking internal divisions that some analysts say reflect a broader power struggle for control of the region.
According to regional insiders, the split is both ideological and tactical: Reda’s camp is advocating for reconstruction and political dialogue, while Debretsion’s side appears to be preparing for renewed military confrontation.
Despite the growing rhetoric, public sentiment in Tigray appears to be shifting away from war. Many in the region, devastated by the last conflict’s toll, are weary of another round of violence. Human rights organizations and conflict monitoring groups have also warned of the humanitarian consequences should full-scale war break out again.
As Ethiopia continues to navigate post-conflict recovery, the potential breakdown of the Pretoria peace deal could destabilize not only the Tigray region but also the fragile political balance across the country and the Horn of Africa.
The federal government has so far refrained from launching a formal offensive but insists that all options remain on the table if TPLF forces breach the peace framework. Observers say the next few weeks will be critical in determining whether the fragile calm can hold—or whether Ethiopia is heading back to war.
