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The End of an Era: France’s Declining Influence and the Rise of New Powers in Africa

The End of an Era: France’s Declining Influence and the Rise of New Powers in Africa

Taha Sakr
Last updated: December 5, 2024 6:35 pm
By Taha Sakr 10 Min Read
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The End of an Era: France’s Declining Influence and the Rise of New Powers in Africa
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In an unprecedented turn of events last Friday, Chad boldly decided to terminate its defense agreements with France, a move that has sent shockwaves through the international community. The Central African nation ordered 1,000 French soldiers to vacate their base in N’Djamena, signaling an abrupt and dramatic end to decades of military cooperation between the two countries. On the same day, Senegal followed suit, intending to expel French forces from its territory. This powerful one-two punch comes on the heels of France’s humiliating forced withdrawal from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger in 2022, further unraveling the delicate web of French influence that had long been a fixture across the African continent.

In an in-depth investigation, Le Figaro journalist Tanguy Berthemier, alongside Nicolas Barrot, explores how the once unshakable French military presence in Africa has crumbled, leaving in its wake a void that is rapidly being filled by other global powers. Once at the zenith of its African dominance, France’s military footprint has been dramatically scaled down. Today, only a handful of French soldiers remain stationed in Gabon and Ivory Coast, while elsewhere in Africa, foreign powers like the United States, China, and Japan have stepped in, with large military bases and strategic partnerships now solidifying their presence across the continent. The strategic shift in the region signifies the end of an era, where France’s role as the military power in Africa was unmatched.

This unfolding crisis in Franco-African relations is a stark reminder of how quickly geopolitical landscapes can shift, with deep and lasting consequences. The once celebrated French military interventions in Africa—particularly in the Sahel—are now viewed by many as emblematic of France’s overreach and declining relevance. In 2013, when France launched Operation Serval in Mali, the world watched as French troops successfully repelled Islamist militants, including Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), from key northern cities like Timbuktu and Kidal. Initially hailed as a much-needed intervention to restore order and security, the operation marked France’s high point in Africa. But it quickly became clear that this military mission, which France had hoped would resolve the region’s instability, was far from a lasting solution.

Despite initial successes, Operation Serval soon morphed into an unending military engagement that left France increasingly bogged down. The longer France stayed, the more the mission was viewed by local populations as a foreign occupation. French soldiers found themselves fighting not just extremists, but against rising local resentment. This shift was particularly notable in Mali, where the French were criticized for their perceived failure to fully understand or address the political and social dynamics of the region. For many in Africa, the French military presence soon became synonymous with colonialism, despite the intentions to the contrary.

In 2020, the situation took a sharp turn. A military coup in Mali saw the overthrow of the government, and the newly installed junta wasted no time in severing ties with France. The coup and the subsequent expulsion of French forces were significant milestones in the deterioration of France’s influence in the region. What had started as a heroic mission to combat terrorism in the Sahel became a symbol of failed interventionism. To make matters worse, France’s handling of the situation was seen as inadequate, with the government failing to recognize the growing anti-French sentiment that was brewing among the population. The tragic loss of 13 French soldiers in Mali in 2019, during a botched military operation, further galvanized the anti-France narrative.

In 2017, newly elected President Emmanuel Macron tried to change the direction of French policy in Africa. He spoke of a “new approach” to the region, one that would prioritize African sovereignty and development over military intervention. However, this shift in rhetoric was met with skepticism and frustration. Despite his efforts, Macron’s overtures did little to stem the growing resentment among African leaders. In 2019, Macron’s call for a summit with African leaders, where he questioned whether the Sahel countries still wanted French military presence, was seen by many as a deeply patronizing move. His blunt statement, “I expect the five Sahel countries to clarify whether they want our presence or not,” did not sit well with many African leaders, who felt insulted by his suggestion that France’s military might be unwanted.

In parallel, France’s continued military presence in the Sahel, under Operation Barkhane, which replaced Serval, failed to achieve the expected results. Despite increasing troop numbers and resources, the French military was unable to decisively defeat the jihadist groups operating in the region. The explanation for this failure, according to many experts and some local communities, is that France was more interested in maintaining its own strategic interests rather than genuinely solving the underlying political and economic problems of the Sahel. Moreover, France’s failure to fully engage with local governments and African institutions only fueled suspicions that its real motivations were driven by a desire to maintain influence and control over Africa’s resources.

The growing frustration within Africa culminated in a shift in political power. The military coups that ousted the governments of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger were not just signs of political instability—they were also indicative of a rejection of French intervention and influence. In Mali, the military junta that took power after the 2020 coup embraced a fiercely anti-French rhetoric, further eroding the relationship between the two nations. Similarly, Burkina Faso and Niger, once staunch allies of France, followed suit, expelling French forces from their territories and embracing military-led governance that often aligns more closely with Russia and other non-Western powers.

Today, as France attempts to regroup in its remaining strongholds in Africa, the writing seems to be on the wall. The recent withdrawal of French forces from Mali, followed by Burkina Faso and Niger, has left France with a much smaller presence on the continent. The geopolitical vacuum created by France’s retreat is quickly being filled by other major players, particularly China and the United States, who have capitalized on the growing disillusionment with French military presence and are expanding their own influence in Africa.

The retreat from the Sahel is not just a political setback for France—it’s a stark realization that the continent is changing, and Africa’s leaders are no longer willing to accept foreign military occupation, especially when it fails to address their deeper, structural challenges. As African nations take matters into their own hands, whether through military coups or strategic realignments, France’s traditional role as a colonial power in the region has come to an end.

This turning point in Africa’s history will undoubtedly have long-term implications. With global powers like China, Russia, and the United States positioning themselves as alternatives to traditional Western powers like France, Africa is becoming a battleground for influence between these competing superpowers. The loss of French military and political power in Africa marks the beginning of a new era—one where African nations assert their sovereignty and seek partnerships that are more aligned with their own interests, free from the shadows of colonial influence.

As the region becomes increasingly pivotal in global geopolitics, the consequences of France’s retreat will be felt far beyond the Sahel. The shifting dynamics in Africa will reshape the global order, forcing European powers to reconsider their strategies and relationships with the continent. The next chapter in France’s history with Africa will likely be written not by military might, but by diplomacy, development, and a genuine respect for African sovereignty. The echoes of France’s withdrawal will resonate across the continent, shaping Africa’s future as it becomes a central player in the global power struggle.

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