In recent years, Turkey has emerged as a significant player in mediating disputes in the Horn of Africa. Following three rounds of negotiations, Ankara successfully brokered a landmark agreement on December 11, resolving a contentious legal dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia. This conflict revolved around an agreement Ethiopia signed earlier this year with the self-declared Republic of Somaliland, a region not internationally recognized.
The Turkish-mediated accord grants Ethiopia access to a 20-kilometer zone near Somalia’s strategic Berbera Port on the Red Sea for 50 years. In return, Ethiopia recognized Somaliland’s autonomy and provided the region with a stake in Ethiopian Airlines. The deal initially sparked outrage from regional players, including Egypt, as well as Western nations.
Although the details of the Turkish-backed reconciliation remain unclear, the agreement reportedly outlines Ethiopia’s unhindered and secure access to international waters near the Indian Ocean and the southern entry of the Red Sea. This arrangement also requires Ethiopian collaboration with Somalia’s federal government and stipulates the initiation of technical dialogues by February 2025 to resolve pending disputes. Turkey has committed to facilitating these discussions if required.
Egypt’s Growing Stake in Somalia
Egypt has recently deepened its ties with Somalia, a move that takes on heightened significance in light of this new agreement. In August, the two nations signed a comprehensive defense agreement aimed at enhancing military cooperation. President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has repeatedly reaffirmed Egypt’s unwavering support for Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
This strengthened partnership followed Egypt’s decision in December 2023 to suspend negotiations with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) due to Ethiopia’s perceived intransigence. As part of its strategy, Egypt has delivered military equipment to Somalia and plans to contribute troops to African peacekeeping forces set to replace Ethiopian contingents in early 2025. These actions have alarmed Addis Ababa and its allies, such as Uganda, which view Cairo’s growing role as a direct threat to Ethiopian national security.
On the political front, Egypt has sought to establish a trilateral alliance with Somalia and Eritrea. This initiative aims to counter Ethiopia’s influence, particularly in the wake of Eritrea’s criticisms of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s agreement with Somaliland. Eritrea views the deal as undermining its own ports in Assab and Massawa, which Ethiopia relies on for trade. Additionally, Eritrea harbors concerns about Abiy’s ambitions to reclaim Assab, a port Ethiopia lost after Eritrea’s independence in 1993.
The culmination of Egypt’s diplomatic efforts was evident during a trilateral summit held in Asmara on October 10, which focused on enhancing security and defense collaboration among Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea.
Somalia’s Balancing Act
Despite its recent accord with Ethiopia, Somalia appears reluctant to jeopardize its burgeoning relationship with Egypt. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud visited Cairo twice in 2024, underscoring the significance of this bilateral partnership. Although Mogadishu has not explicitly coordinated with Cairo regarding the Turkish-brokered agreement, it has maintained open channels of communication.
Immediately after the deal’s announcement, Somali Foreign Minister Abshir Omar Jama briefed his Egyptian counterpart, Sameh Shoukry, on its implications. Egypt’s official response, issued on December 15, emphasized its steadfast support for Somalia’s federal government in combating terrorism and promoting stability. Cairo also reiterated its commitment to enhancing cooperation and preparing for a trilateral ministerial meeting involving Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea to address shared regional concerns.
Egypt’s statement underscores its determination to retain a strategic foothold in Somalia. The country remains committed to contributing peacekeeping forces to Somalia, placing Mogadishu in a challenging position as it seeks to balance competing pressures from Egypt and Ethiopia.
Egypt’s Strategic Options
As Ethiopia consolidates its regional influence, Egypt faces a pivotal moment in shaping its Horn of Africa strategy. Two primary options stand out:
- Strengthening the Egypt-Somalia-Eritrea Alliance
Egypt can continue to bolster its trilateral alliance with Somalia and Eritrea. By intensifying support for Somalia in various domains, Cairo can maintain its leverage in negotiations with Addis Ababa. Additionally, Egypt could expand this coalition by including Djibouti, a country adversely affected by Ethiopia’s Somaliland agreement. Djibouti facilitates 95% of Ethiopia’s foreign trade, earning significant transit fees that could be threatened by Ethiopia’s new access to Berbera Port. - Leveraging Turkish Mediation
Alternatively, Egypt could deepen its engagement with Turkey, particularly in the Horn of Africa, to advance its objectives regarding GERD. Turkey’s robust ties with Ethiopia, exemplified by its provision of drones during Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict, position Ankara as a potential mediator. Furthermore, Turkey’s experience in water disputes with Iraq and Syria offers valuable insights for resolving the Nile River crisis.
During a March 2023 visit to Cairo, former Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu expressed Ankara’s willingness to mediate GERD negotiations. He highlighted Turkey’s strong relationships with Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt, and its expertise in managing transboundary water disputes.
A Defining Moment for Egypt
Egypt’s strategic decisions in the Horn of Africa will have far-reaching implications for its regional influence and national security. As Ethiopia capitalizes on its agreements with Somaliland and Turkey’s diplomatic support, Cairo must weigh its options carefully. Whether by reinforcing alliances or pursuing pragmatic collaborations with Turkey, Egypt aims to safeguard its interests in this volatile yet strategically vital region.
