South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has warned of a potentially devastating economic impact if the country loses preferential access to the US market, raising concerns over jobs, industrial production and export growth amid strained relations between Pretoria and Washington.
Ramaphosa said the government was preparing for the possibility of South Africa losing its eligibility for the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a US trade programme that grants eligible sub-Saharan African countries duty-free access to the American market for thousands of products.
“Congress has decided that we should be kept in AGOA. What now remains is the executive,” Ramaphosa said, referring to the outstanding decision by US President Donald Trump.
The US Congress has approved an extension of AGOA through the end of 2028, but uncertainty remains over South Africa’s future participation as diplomatic tensions between the two countries persist.
South Africa’s exposure is significant. The country is the programme’s largest beneficiary, and the loss of preferential access could hit key export industries, particularly automotive manufacturing, which relies on access to the US market.
Industry estimates suggest that approximately 86,000 jobs at vehicle manufacturers are directly linked to the trade arrangement, with the figure rising to around 125,000 when subcontractors are included.
Beyond the automotive sector, losing AGOA benefits could leave South African exporters facing higher trade barriers, undermining their competitiveness in one of the world’s largest consumer markets.
Ramaphosa said Pretoria was exploring alternative export destinations to reduce the potential damage, with China and India among the markets offering opportunities for trade diversification.
The dispute reflects broader tensions between Pretoria and Washington over political and foreign policy issues. Any move to exclude South Africa from AGOA would put further pressure on bilateral economic ties and test the government’s efforts to protect exports and employment.
