In one of the most geopolitically sensitive and intertwined regions of the Horn of Africa, Eritrea’s Assab Port is emerging as a potential new flashpoint for escalating regional tensions.
Located on the Red Sea coast, the port city of Assab was used for years by Ethiopia for its import and export needs—until Eritrea’s formal independence in 1993 severed those ties.
Now, amid Ethiopia’s renewed ambitions for sovereign access to the sea and Eritrea’s rising suspicions over its neighbor’s intentions, tensions are flaring—not through armed conflict, but via strategic maneuvers, sovereignty claims, and maritime posturing.
While Addis Ababa has intensified its rhetoric over its “natural right” to access the sea—seeking to transform geographic necessity into a long-term strategic principle—Asmara views these actions as a direct threat to its sovereignty and a violation of the balance outlined in the 2018 peace agreement.
This major shift in Ethiopia’s foreign policy, particularly regarding maritime access, has sparked a new wave of regional polarization, exacerbated by growing international competition in the Red Sea and shifting power dynamics in the Horn. The question now: Could Assab Port evolve from a potential model of regional integration into the next trigger for open confrontation?
Accusations & War of Words
Since Eritrea gained independence in 1993, landlocked Ethiopia—Africa’s second most populous country—has ramped up efforts to secure strategic access to the Red Sea.
In the latest episode of growing maritime tensions, the Central Committee of the Amhara National Movement (a political party within Ethiopia’s ruling coalition) issued a statement prioritizing sea access negotiations as part of the national agenda.
In a strongly worded communiqué, the party claimed Eritrea’s independence lacked true popular participation and accused Asmara of “aligning with forces that seek to destabilize Ethiopia,” labeling it a proxy for Ethiopia’s historical adversaries.
Eritrean officials, in turn, accused Ethiopian leaders of promoting an expansionist agenda masked by thinly veiled military threats. Eritrea’s Information Minister, Yemane Gebremeskel, wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that the Amhara party’s statement contained “historical and legal distortions aimed at justifying greed for sovereign territory.”
Eritrea’s Deepening Concerns
Political anxiety in Asmara spiked following a parliamentary address by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, in which he declared that “gaining access to a port is not a luxury but a matter of existential necessity.”
With both official and public discourse in Ethiopia increasingly hinting at “historic claims” to Assab Port, Eritrean observers view Addis Ababa’s moves as a bid to reassert historical dominance under the guise of economic needs.
These concerns are compounded by fears that Ethiopia could serve as a vehicle for regional or global powers to expand their presence in the Red Sea, prompting Eritrea to adopt a hardline stance and reject any public discussions over the future of its ports.
The Ownership Debate
Many Ethiopian politicians argue that Assab historically belongs to Ethiopia and claim that Eritrea deliberately stalled secret negotiations to prevent Ethiopia from retaining access to the port after the 1993 referendum that formalized Eritrean independence.
Retired Ethiopian diplomat Ambassador Teruneh Zenna told Al Jazeera Net that “while Ethiopia holds historical and legal rights to access Assab Port, Eritrea’s independence froze that reality in political limbo.”
He added, “Ethiopia never truly capitalized on its port access in a way that served its long-term strategic interests. However, current economic and geopolitical pressures are forcing Addis Ababa to revisit the issue.”
According to Zenna, Ethiopia may be left with no choice but to explore all available options to reclaim strategic maritime access through Assab.
Pathways to Dialogue or Deadlock?
Political analyst Shafa Omar Al-Afri told Al Jazeera Net that activating Assab Port to serve regional interests could be mutually beneficial—but only through dialogue, respect for Eritrean sovereignty, and without any form of coercion.
Adam Haj Musa, Secretary-General of Eritrea’s opposition National Front for Change, emphasized that “the will and interests of the Eritrean people do not inherently conflict with Ethiopian needs. Given our proximity and shared history, the two nations can develop complementary relations based on diplomacy, cooperation, and freely negotiated bilateral agreements.”
Musa believes the two sides could formalize mutual interests with the help of a third-party mediator possessing the technical expertise to guide joint development projects. But without a genuine will from the Eritrean side, diplomatic dialogue may remain extremely difficult—if not impossible.
The unfolding situation around Assab Port poses a serious test to the Horn of Africa’s ability to move beyond traditional conflict and instead build strategic partnerships based on mutual respect and long-term stability.
