Facing growing military setbacks and shrinking regional backing, President Félix Tshisekedi of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is now seriously considering entering direct negotiations with the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group—an option he has long rejected.
Three senior Congolese government officials told Reuters that while no official announcement has been made, Tshisekedi is strongly weighing whether to send a delegation to upcoming talks in Luanda, Angola, scheduled for March 18. Angola’s unexpected declaration this week that Kinshasa and M23 would engage in direct discussions came as a surprise to many and signals a possible turning point in the long-running conflict in eastern Congo.
The proposed talks come amid M23’s continued territorial gains across the mineral-rich provinces of eastern DRC. Backed by what United Nations experts say are thousands of Rwandan troops and advanced weaponry, the rebels have seized control of several key cities and towns since January, tightening their grip on areas rich in coltan, tantalum, and other strategic resources.
Despite these developments, Kinshasa has not yet officially confirmed its participation in the Angola-hosted dialogue. One source close to the matter said government involvement is “almost certain,” though a final decision—and details about the delegation—are still under discussion and may not be announced until next week.
Shift in Regional Mood
Diplomats and observers say there is growing consensus among African states that dialogue, not military confrontation, is the only viable solution to halt the escalating crisis.
“I haven’t spoken to a single African country that believes Kinshasa should avoid talks with M23,” said one senior diplomat. “Everyone agrees: how do you stop the fighting without engaging?”
The M23 group has also demanded a formal commitment from the Congolese president to participate in the dialogue, while both sides have raised concerns over the legal and political framework under which the negotiations will take place.
Meanwhile, regional efforts continue. Southern and East African foreign and defense ministers are expected to meet in Harare on Monday to explore avenues for a ceasefire and broader political settlement.
Military Strategy Under Fire
President Tshisekedi has repeatedly vowed not to negotiate with M23, portraying them as terrorists and illegitimate actors in the conflict. However, the government’s military approach has faltered. Analysts argue that the army’s inability to halt the rebel advance—and the decision by Southern African nations to begin a phased withdrawal of the SAMIDRC regional force—highlight a serious erosion of confidence in Kinshasa’s military strategy.
“The government is realizing that its military solution has failed,” said Bob Kabamba, a Congolese political analyst at the University of Liège. “Dialogue is now being considered because they fear the rebel coalition could achieve a critical breakthrough.”
The withdrawal of the SAMIDRC force, while limited in military impact, carries symbolic weight. The regional deployment had been seen as a key sign of solidarity with Tshisekedi’s administration. Its exit underscores a shift in regional attitudes and may reflect concerns about being drawn into a broader war.
Angola, for instance, is reportedly eager to avoid a repeat of the regional conflicts of the 1990s and early 2000s that killed millions across Central Africa. Stephanie Wolters, a senior analyst at South Africa’s Institute for Security Studies, noted that Angola’s latest move reflects its determination to stop M23 from pushing further west into Congolese territory.
Public Opinion & Political Risks
Any move to negotiate with M23 is likely to spark outrage among Congolese citizens, particularly in Kinshasa, where Tshisekedi has built political capital by opposing talks and portraying himself as a defender of national sovereignty.
But with military options dwindling and diplomatic channels gaining momentum, Tshisekedi may soon be forced to make a politically risky—but potentially necessary—pivot.
