Africa is watching the outcome of the US midterm elections closely, as shifts in Congress’s balance of power could shape Washington’s trade policies, security partnerships, development assistance, and diplomatic engagement with the continent during the remaining two years of President Donald Trump’s term.
Americans voted on Tuesday (Nov. 3) to elect members of the House of Representatives and the Senate, with control of both chambers at stake. However, the final congressional balance remained uncertain on Wednesday as vote counting continued in several closely contested races.
The Associated Press (AP) reported that determining which party will control Congress could take several days, particularly as outstanding mail ballots and tight races delay the announcement of results in some states.
Republicans entered the elections controlling both chambers, holding a 53-47 advantage in the Senate and a narrow majority in the House. Democrats were seeking to gain control of one or both chambers, which would give them greater influence over legislation, federal spending and oversight of the Trump administration.
According to Reuters, a Democratic takeover of either chamber could complicate Trump’s legislative agenda, although the president would retain executive powers and the ability to veto legislation.
For African governments, the congressional outcome carries implications beyond US domestic politics, particularly as Washington’s approach to international trade, foreign assistance and security cooperation continues to shape economic and diplomatic relations across the continent.
Trade relations and AGOA
One of the most significant issues for African economies is the future implementation and possible reform of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which provides eligible sub-Saharan African countries with preferential access to the US market.
Congress extended AGOA through Dec. 31, 2028, under the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2027, signed by Trump on Sept. 2, 2026, giving African exporters and businesses additional certainty over the programme’s continuation.
However, questions remain over its implementation and potential reforms. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has called for modernising the programme to align it with the administration’s trade policy and increase market access for American businesses.
The Congressional Research Service (CRS), in an August 2026 report, said US imports receiving AGOA duty-free treatment reached approximately $5 billion in 2025, down from $7.9 billion in 2024. South Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Kenya and Madagascar were the programme’s five largest beneficiaries.
The report also highlighted congressional oversight of AGOA, noting that lawmakers have a role in evaluating its effectiveness and shaping future trade policy towards sub-Saharan Africa.
The issue has gained additional importance following the Trump administration’s Nov. 2 announcement that it intends to terminate South Africa and Rwanda’s eligibility for AGOA benefits from Jan. 1, 2027.
The Office of the US Trade Representative said the decision followed an annual review of beneficiary countries’ compliance with the programme’s eligibility requirements, citing concerns over trade barriers, governance and US national security interests.
The move could have significant implications for South Africa, the programme’s largest beneficiary, and demonstrates how decisions taken by the US administration and Congress can directly affect African exporters and their access to international markets.
Nigeria’s economic and strategic relationship with Washington
Nigeria provides another example of the importance of US political decisions for African economies.
According to the US Congressional Research Service’s July 2026 report, Nigeria is the United States’ second-largest trade partner in sub-Saharan Africa and one of its major recipients of foreign assistance.
The US Trade Representative (USTR) estimated that bilateral trade in goods and services reached $14.7 billion in 2025, representing a 13.3% increase from 2024.
Cooperation between the two countries covers trade, investment, healthcare, education and security, including counterterrorism operations.
However, the CRS report noted that disagreements over religious freedom, human rights and security concerns have attracted congressional attention and influenced bilateral relations.
Additionally, it highlighted changes in US foreign assistance under the Trump administration, including the termination of several development programmes and increased emphasis on commercial diplomacy and private-sector investment.
Congressional oversight of foreign assistance and security funding could therefore influence the conditions governing future cooperation with Nigeria, particularly as lawmakers debate Washington’s priorities in West Africa.
Security cooperation and regional stability
Beyond trade and development financing, the congressional balance could influence US security engagement across Africa, particularly in regions facing terrorism, armed conflicts and political instability.
The CRS report on Nigeria identified counterterrorism, intelligence cooperation, military training and defence assistance among the key areas of bilateral engagement.
Changes in congressional priorities and appropriations could affect the resources available for such partnerships, as well as the conditions attached to American security assistance.
These considerations extend to the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, where regional governments continue to face security challenges that have wider implications for international stability, migration and economic development.
What the results mean for Africa
The midterm elections also come amid wider debates over US tariffs, immigration policies, climate financing and international development spending.
A change in congressional control could increase scrutiny of the administration’s foreign policy decisions and create new legislative challenges over spending priorities and international commitments.
However, the extent of any policy shift will depend on the final congressional results, the margins held by either party and the administration’s willingness to negotiate with lawmakers.
For African governments, the developments underline the importance of strengthening economic resilience, diversifying international partnerships and expanding intra-African trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
