The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has called for urgent action to protect vulnerable communities across Africa as forecasts indicate the current El Niño is likely to strengthen into one of the most powerful events recorded since 1950, increasing the risk of droughts, floods and worsening food insecurity.
The warning comes as about 149 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa are already facing high levels of food insecurity, according to the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises.
FAO said moderate El Niño conditions were observed in the Pacific Ocean as of July 2026, with global climate models projecting further strengthening in the coming months, potentially disrupting rainfall patterns across the continent.
In West and Central Africa, El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall during the June-September rainy season, raising the risk of reduced agricultural production, although impacts vary across the region.
In East Africa, the effects differ by location. FAO said South Sudan, Sudan, western Ethiopia, Uganda’s Karamoja region and Eritrea frequently experience below-average rainfall during their main growing season, leading to weaker harvests.
By contrast, the eastern Horn of Africa, which depends on the October-December rainy season, often receives above-average rainfall during El Niño years, increasing the risk of flooding, displacement, crop losses, infrastructure damage and worsening food insecurity.
FAO warned that Southern Africa is also likely to face below-average rainfall during the October-April growing season. As maize is the region’s main staple crop and highly vulnerable to drought, reduced rainfall could affect harvests during the 2026/27 agricultural season.
The agency noted that strong maize harvests recorded in parts of Southern Africa earlier this year could help cushion regional cereal supplies, but prolonged dry conditions may still undermine food availability and rural incomes.
To strengthen preparedness, FAO said it is working with regional partners to improve early warning and anticipatory action. In July, the agency participated in a webinar organised by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD), where experts assessed the latest climate forecasts and their implications for agriculture, water resources, disaster management, health and food security.
FAO said acting before disasters strike is more effective and less costly than responding after communities have already been affected.
To support vulnerable populations, FAO and the World Food Programme (WFP) have launched a joint US$202 million Anticipatory Action Appeal to protect 8.8 million people across 22 countries, including 12 African nations.
The planned interventions include strengthening early warning systems, providing cash assistance, distributing drought-tolerant and flood-resistant seeds, supporting livestock, improving flood protection and expanding water storage infrastructure.
FAO said lessons from its 2023-2024 El Niño response showed that investing in early action delivers significant returns, with every dollar spent before a crisis helping to prevent several dollars in future humanitarian losses while improving communities’ resilience to climate shocks.
