Ethiopia is among 39 countries where extreme poverty is deepening, driven by conflict and political instability, according to a new report by the World Bank released this week.
The study finds that around 421 million people across these countries are living on less than $3 a day, with that figure expected to rise to 435 million by 2030 if current trends persist. Ethiopia, the report says, is one of several nations facing increasing levels of extreme hunger and deprivation in the years following the COVID-19 pandemic.
Citing conflict as a major driver, the World Bank highlighted the economic and humanitarian toll of Ethiopia’s civil wars, particularly the two-year war between federal forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which began in November 2020. The conflict reportedly claimed up to 1 million lives, primarily in the Tigray, Amhara, and Afar regions, and left millions displaced.
“The world’s attention has been on the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s chief economist. “But many other countries, including Ethiopia, are seeing deteriorating poverty conditions due to prolonged violence.”
In addition to the Tigray conflict, fighting has escalated in the Amhara region since August 2023, when the government launched a military operation against the Fano militia group. Originally intended to disarm the group within two weeks, the conflict has dragged on for nearly two years, further destabilizing the region. The federal government has acknowledged the ongoing violence but attributes it to armed groups, who say they are resisting what they describe as an “existential threat” to Amhara communities.
Another prolonged insurgency continues in Oromia, Ethiopia’s largest region, where armed groups have been active for over six years, seeking to establish an ethnic-based Oromo republic.
The economic cost of Ethiopia’s internal conflicts is substantial. Reports estimate the damage at over a trillion birr, with many displaced civilians now living in extreme poverty.
The World Bank warns that without a resolution to ongoing conflicts, poverty rates in Ethiopia and similar fragile states could worsen sharply by the end of the decade.
