East Africa is projected to lead Africa in economic growth, yet millions face severe food insecurity and multidimensional poverty, according to a new report from African Narratives, published Sunday. While the region’s real GDP growth is forecast to increase to 3.4 percent, exceeding the global average, the benefits of this growth have not reached the most vulnerable populations.
The report authored by Asma Fahmy, highlights a significant gap between economic growth rates and poverty reduction. Although inflation rates have relatively declined, and East Africa is expected to maintain its position as a leading growth region in Africa, exceeding the global average of 3.2 percent in 2024, high rates of poverty and hunger persist.
The region struggles to meet the rising demand for agricultural products, increasing the risk of food insecurity. This disparity underscores the urgent need for targeted interventions to ensure that economic growth translates into tangible improvements in the lives of the poorest.
According to the African Development Bank Group’s 2024 annual report, Africa’s average real GDP growth rate is expected to slow from 4.1 percent in 2022 to 3.1 percent in 2023, before recovering to 3.7 percent in 2024 and 4.3 percentin 2025.
East Africa is expected to lead this recovery, but the report also notes that the ongoing conflict in Sudan has caused significant economic damage, leading to a sharp decline in agricultural production and widespread destruction of infrastructure. This conflict significantly impacts the region’s overall growth prospects.
The report compares East Africa’s economic performance with that of other African regions and the world. While Africa is anticipated to maintain its position as one of the fastest-growing regions globally, exceeding the global average GDP growth rate, the inflation rate in East Africa remains high.
In 2023, Sudan recorded the highest inflation rate at 245.3 percent, while other East African countries also faced significant inflationary pressures due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. This high inflation, coupled with supply shortages and rising fuel prices, has led to a high cost of living and reduced purchasing power for vulnerable households.
Globally, inflation is forecast to decrease to 3.5 percent by the end of 2025, a decline from a peak of 9.4 percent in the third quarter of 2022.
The report also examines development assistance provided to East African countries. East Africa receives significant official development assistance allocated to agriculture, but the region faces challenges securing sustainable international support amid increasing geopolitical competition and multiple global crises.
The report suggests that deepening regional integration through enhanced trade and investment could be a crucial step towards sustainable development.
Key challenges facing East Africa
Despite the East African Community’s (EAC) ambitious goals for economic integration, intra-regional trade remains limited, not exceeding 15 percent. The inclusion of conflict-ridden countries like South Sudan and Somalia further complicates the implementation process. The report identifies several key challenges facing East African countries:
- Population Growth: The region’s population is projected to increase significantly from 332 million in 2023 to 647 million by 2050, putting pressure on natural resources and services. The Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to see the most significant population growth.
- Inflation Rates: While inflation rates have decreased from 40.7 percent in 2021 to 27.8 percent in 2023, they still pose a significant challenge to the region’s economies. Global food prices stabilised in 2024, but some East African countries, including Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan, experienced increased basic commodity prices due to various factors, including drought, conflict, and currency depreciation.
- Multidimensional Poverty: The 2023 Global Multidimensional Poverty Index reveals that 1.1 billion people live in multidimensional poverty globally, with nearly half concentrated in East, West, Central, and Southern Africa. Social protection systems in Africa suffer from fragmentation and limited coverage.
- External Debt: Successive shocks have worsened the vulnerability of African economies and increased their need for financial support. Many African countries face high borrowing costs, crushing financing constraints, and weaknesses in their debt profiles. Some countries have defaulted on sovereign bonds and are restructuring their debts.
- Armed Conflicts and Political Instability: The conflict in Sudan has had a devastating impact on the region’s economy, exceeding expectations. The conflict in Ethiopia also caused significant economic losses.
- Recurring Climate Events: Climate change poses a significant threat to East Africa, particularly to the agricultural sector, which employs a large portion of the population. Droughts, floods, and other extreme weather events have had devastating impacts, causing food insecurity, displacement, and conflict. In 2020, East Africa covered only 11 percent of its annual climate financing needs.
- Spread of Hunger and Food Insecurity: The number of hungry people in Africa has increased significantly since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The war in Ukraine exacerbated the situation, impacting food availability and prices in the region. In 2023, the agricultural production deficit in East Africa reached 20 million tons. The proportion of people suffering from acute food insecurity increased from 22 percent to 24 percent between 2022 and 2023.
The report concludes that the region faces a severe hunger and food insecurity crisis, particularly in conflict-affected areas.
It highlights several priorities for addressing these challenges: increased investment in the agricultural sector, support for small farmers, balanced financial stability and development needs, monetary policies focused on price stability, accelerated economic integration, and a reduction in regional tensions. The report notes that achieving food security will require sustained and multifaceted efforts.
African Narratives for Strategic Studies is a Pan-African non-profit policy research organisation dedicated to reshaping global understanding of Africa and addressing its challenges. Focusing on democracy, security, energy, economic development, and human rights, the organisation amplifies African voices to foster informed discourse and promote sustainable progress.
