Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow by an average of 4.4% annually through 2028, provided the government sustains its economic reforms and improves public service delivery, the World Bank (WB) said.
The forecast was included in the WB’s latest Nigeria Development Update, which highlighted improving macroeconomic stability, stronger government revenues and a gradual recovery in private investment.
Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.2% in the first half of 2026, up from 3.9% growth recorded in 2025, with services and agriculture among the main drivers of expansion, according to the report.
WB expects inflation to continue declining, from around 15% currently to about 12% by 2028, if economic reforms remain on track.
The lender said reforms including the removal of fuel subsidies and foreign exchange market adjustments have increased revenues available to state governments, creating greater room for spending on infrastructure, education and healthcare.
State revenues rose by about 93% in real terms between 2023 and 2025, the World Bank said, while urging state governments to improve spending efficiency and direct more resources toward human capital development.
Taiwo Oyedele, Nigeria’s Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, said the reforms had helped strengthen economic stability and put the country on a faster growth path.
He said the government was seeking to build a private-sector-led economy capable of generating jobs on a broad scale.
WB, however, warned that stronger revenues alone would not be sufficient to reduce poverty and improve living standards unless governments translate them into more efficient spending on public services, infrastructure and human capital.
The bank’s latest outlook is part of a broader improvement in its assessment of Sub-Saharan Africa, where growth forecasts have been upgraded for nearly three-quarters of countries in the region.
